In rough order from “somewhat probable” to “QoT’s wishful thinking”:
- Key muddles along until 2013, then bows out claiming his work is done to allow someone (fuck knows who) to lead National into the 2014 election.
- ACT gets absorbed into National, if only in a Jim Anderton-esque way, until Banks retires.
- Whatever NZ First does, it’s entertaining. Fully undecided on whether Winston accepted some baubles of office or is enough of a grumpy old man that he’ll truly be content to sit on the backbenches sniping at everyone.
- Conservatives, whose momentum largely derives from Colin Craig’s pockets, stick around and become the new rightwing alternative (now with bonus fundies)
- Greens form an MOU with NACT, get a few strong policies in, stick around the 10-12% mark as Labour hopefully figures out how to get votes back off National instead of whiteanting them*
- Labour frontbench bloodbath. Please. Unfortunately Damien O’Connor’s victory in West Coast-Tasman will probably convince plenty that pandering to Chris Trotter’s fantasy Waitakere Man is still a winning strategy.
Remaining thoughts on election night: TVNZ’s graphics sucked (and the graphic designer at our party agreed); Goff’s speech was really good; Peters remains a suave, suave dude. Happy the Greens picked up a record vote, boo hiss bloody Epsom and bloody David Parker.
Otherwise, same old same old, innit?
*Yep, I went there.