Hungover predictions for 2011-14

In rough order from “somewhat probable” to “QoT’s wishful thinking”:

  1. Key muddles along until 2013, then bows out claiming his work is done to allow someone (fuck knows who) to lead National into the 2014 election.
  2. ACT gets absorbed into National, if only in a Jim Anderton-esque way, until Banks retires.
  3. Whatever NZ First does, it’s entertaining.  Fully undecided on whether Winston accepted some baubles of office or is enough of a grumpy old man that he’ll truly be content to sit on the backbenches sniping at everyone.
  4. Conservatives, whose momentum largely derives from Colin Craig’s pockets, stick around and become the new rightwing alternative (now with bonus fundies)
  5. Greens form an MOU with NACT, get a few strong policies in, stick around the 10-12% mark as Labour hopefully figures out how to get votes back off National instead of whiteanting them*
  6. Labour frontbench bloodbath.  Please.  Unfortunately Damien O’Connor’s victory in West Coast-Tasman will probably convince plenty that pandering to Chris Trotter’s fantasy Waitakere Man is still a winning strategy.

Remaining thoughts on election night: TVNZ’s graphics sucked (and the graphic designer at our party agreed); Goff’s speech was really good; Peters remains a suave, suave dude.  Happy the Greens picked up a record vote, boo hiss bloody Epsom and bloody David Parker.

Otherwise, same old same old, innit?


*Yep, I went there.

One comment

  1. just saying

    Just saying:

    I suspect Pagani and Trotter’s advice will continue to be heeded, despite it proving to be a dismal faliure. Same old story, they’ll claim that they didn’t go far enough, and never realise that the problem was that they were on the wrong track.

    I sometimes wonder if the fifties and sixties that they like to idealise, was in fact, a long way from ideal for both of them. I’ve often noticed that those who are the most nostalgic have rewritten their own pasts to a dramatic degree, and the intensity of feeling is necessary to feed the self-deception.

    Oh, and my wish: That Labour passes a remit banning their members from serving more than four terms in parliament in their lifetimes, inclusive of a maximum of two as leader.